The AmQuix "Business Case"

This page reviews a few of the questions a professional businessman would ask when investigating the acquisition of any new business. Anyone looking at Amway as a "business" should too, put on the "businessman's cap" and ask typical business oriented questions of the "Amway opportunity".

The professional businessman would:

  1. Define the target market
  2. Research the competitive price level and what the market will bear
  3. Define the variable and fixed costs of running the business
  4. Prepare a business plan to forecast revenue, expenses, and profit or loss
  5. Set a limit to how long and to what extent he will incur losses in that business

 

Here is a summary of information a professional businessman would need to research the "Amway opportunity" (see below for reasoning for each piece of information)

Without such information you would not be able to analyze the "opportunity" in a professional, business like way. Amway should track all this information, but they will never release it. I asked for it before, but they refused to release it. The depth of business information available is insufficient to make a logical, fact, based business plan.

Their goal is to show you the very few successful exceptions in the business, and have you believe that anyone following their plan can have the same exceptional results. They want you to see the extreme, above average achievers, and make the assumption that everyone can be above average! If one person has done it in a certain time, then it should be possible for you to replicate those results for yourself.

It is easier for them to get you to join when there are few facts and statistics to clutter your imagination of how successful you can be. They want your imagination to run free with all the possibilities and not to consider the realities which cold hard data and statistics would show you. There is a very famous rally cry at their weekend motivational rallies. It is "If you have a dream, the facts just don't matter". There have been many sobering awakenings for "average" distributors that "blow out" after spending, thousands of dollars in overhead cost related losses and price premiums, and thousands of hours of effort. They decided they couldn't ignore the facts any longer, and decided to cut their losses.

A list of business questions to ask about the business Print them out and take them with you.

See Amway Public relations response when they were asked for business related statistics.

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Defining the Target Market

The first question, a businessman asks about a new business, is "What is the market I want to go after", "how big is the market", and "how fast is that market growing".

If a market is large and already exists, then the new business may be able to steal market share away from other competitors by providing something new or more efficient. If the market is small, but growing quickly, then getting in quickly may allow the business to be the leader and eventually be the largest player in the future market. If the sales are growing quickly, it will allow the business to spread overhead costs out over more sales, increasing the profitability in the future. Sales growth is a historical measure, so it should be available. In the both cases the new business must offer something different; uniqueness, price, quality, or service. The distributorship must distinguish itself in someway from the competitors.

What is the target market of an Amway distributorship?

    1. All retail consumers?
    2. All people looking for a small business to own?
    3. Small business looking for products to support their business?

It is usually presented as the first two, but the main focus is the networking feature, B. The primary market would be defined as "people looking for a small business to own", and the secondary market is "all consumers in the retail market".

So now you need to find out about our target market of "people looking for a small business to own" and how fast it is growing. Who would have historical information on how fast this segment grows? Many companies support this market today. Companies like Subway Sandwich shops, Kinko's copying, McDonalds, Pack-Mail, and lastly Amway to name a few. Since Amway administers the issuance of distributorships they are in a position to have all the historical data on number of new distributors each year and the corresponding annual renewal rates of distributors.

It would be very helpful to have this information to understand the size of the target market, and how successful this particular player (Amway) is in the market. Having this information could help you make average estimates as to how quickly you could recruit new distributors, and how many distributors will be with you at the end of the year. This information is critical to formulating your business plan. Successful companies in this market make it a matter of policy to make this information to available to businessmen. The availability of this information is critical since the businessmen making the business plan needs accurate information to approach banks and investors to finance the business. Ask your upline or Amway for the distributor statistics. To accurately formulate your business plan you need to know, for the country where you want to focus;

 

Research the competitive price level and what the market will bear

Researching the other competitors who are out to server the primary market " people looking for a small business to own " you will find two main classes of competitors. Those being franchisers (like those listed above) and Multi-Level-Marketers, (MLM's). The two differentiate themselves mainly by cost to acquire the business. MLM's serve those customers who have very limited capital resources and could not afford to buy a traditional franchise as well as finance the large fixed costs associated with such businesses. Since the cost of acquiring an Amway franchise is only the cost of the kit and the annual renewal fee, Amway in this respect is very competitive. The lack of employees, a separate office, low overhead, and low overall investment is the most competitive offering in this market. This is the best deal out there, from an organizational and fixed cost standpoint. There are no receivables, everybody pays cash, there is not inventory to manage or finance. Even though it is the best deal out there it doesn't mean that the business is competitive. Like Amway, you could buy goods at Wal-Mart and try to sell them to your friends, and still have low overhead, no receivables, and no employees. You would still not be successful, because you won't be competitive on price! Once you are deep in the system there is however an opportunity to market promotional supplies such as books and tapes, and motivational weekend events to your downline. The sales of these items can be very profitable.

Researching the other competitors who are out to serve the secondary market " all consumers in the retail market", I found through comparing only on price that the Amway distributor has a tremendous disadvantage. See: Price studies on main page. In order to ensure a competitive business advantage in the secondary market, the Amway distributor will need to compete on something besides price, possibly quality and service. You must go back and identify the size of that market segment that desire things other than the best price.

Ask how the Amway distributorship could compete. Quality? Service? How would I reach and educate the target customer? How would I educate them about better quality products? In house demonstrations, free samples, use of the Amway Brand Name? How would I server the customers better? Do I have a better and wider selection, do I have a better returns-policy, and do I have faster delivery, than the competitors? These are the questions that must be answered to ensure you have a competitive advantage and not just be another "me-to" distributor of goods and services.

Define the variable and fixed costs of running the business

An Amway distributorship will have little to no variable costs relating to product sales. We can assume there are no bad debts to write off as % of sales. You can put all promotional expenses into overhead.

An Amway distributorship could have, in theory, no fixed costs or overhead costs, except for the annual Amway renewal fee. The SA4400 information handed out by distributors from Amway, "approved" by the FTC, shows only the gross income of a distributorship from rebates and bonuses. What is left out is that the significant overhead costs, as a fraction of income. When a distributorship is run according the to how "successful people" run their businesses, one can easily realize the following expenses-->. Typical "system" related overhead costs. Most people looking to make a little extra money will be surprised when they find out to follow the plan and have a successful distributorship they would be expected to spend $3,600+ the first year in distributorship related overhead costs. The "system" is promoted because that is what the successful people used to build their businesses. All are told to strictly follow the "recipe" or "system" and everything will go according to plan. You have no way to know what works best so you will have to assume the worst case scenario and use $3,400 as the first years overhead cost. Subsequent year's overhead may be reduced since there are few one-time expenses.

The overhead cost cited do not include any increased costs for purchases a distributor makes for self-consumption, over what he would have spent at a local store. I have proven to myself that to blindly buy everything from the Amway distributorship would on average cost me 40% more.

Prepare the business plan

To prepare a business plan you need estimated revenues and estimated expenses. The overhead costs are detailed above.

To accurately forecast how your distributorship might grow, it will be good to use historical data from the people who have used the same system before. Since the system is used throughout Amway, just the data from the corporation would be useful enough. The Amway Corporation should have all sorts of statistical information about the average and median times to break certain pin levels. Histograms would be an enormous help to show how the normal distributor performs against the, always-present minority, exceptions. Detailed statistical information on rebates and bonuses would be very handy for estimating the rebate and bonus income for various pin levels. This would be extremely useful in estimating the costs of downline rebates as well. It is always better to work with real life data than try to make up your own. Even though this data should be available inside Amway, I'm sure you will not be able to get it. It may not be in their best interest to reveal the facts.

Another way to see how good their system is. Ask to see detailed financial results of your uplines business. If the business is indeed profitable and they are asking you to reproduce what they have done, what harm is it to show you the books? If it is such a good business, and they want to share it with you, why not share everything? Including the financials? If you go to buy an existing business, you will certainly ask the guy selling the business to show you the books, wouldn't you? How is this business opportunity any different?

You can see from a logical, business like planning process that you are short some very critical information for analyzing the Amway distributorship opportunity. To completely understand the opportunity you need to know:

Define when you will cut your losses

With any business or investment you need to define at what point you are going to admit that the business or investment is not working for you. Stock market professionals as well as corporations do not take losses forever. They set a point where they will admit that they made a mistake and get out. The same is true with an Amway distributorship. Set goals for yourself that match your needs, based upon profitability and effort. Review your progress as you go to see if the profitability is matching your expectations. Too many times inexperienced business people or novice stock market investors lose everything because they can't look rationally at their situation and decide "it isn't working as I had planned". The system of motivation used in Amway teaches people not to look at the results of their business. They are taught that others have succeeded using their system. If you use and follow the system, it will be a matter of time until you succeed also. If you don't succeed, it is because you are not following their system to the letter, or you are not working hard enough. They will make you believe the system is infallible, and the only reason you are not successful is that you are not following the system. They need to brainwash you in this concept so that you will never question the economic realities of the system and the built-in inefficiencies that prevent economic success. Once you are brainwashed that the system is infallible then they have a loyal and dedicated customer. These customers will "robot-like" buy anything including expensive products, motivational tapes, and tickets to weekend motivational events, all in the name of following the system in order to be successful. How do you know the system is 100% infallible and that you can place so much faith in it? Maybe some statistics from Amway could help you review the probabilities.

 

In conclusion, are you willing to jump into a business without researching it like a professional, and without data a professional would require?

Click here to ask Amway yourself for the business information

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